TominKC---call me crazy, but the story of your family's reaction to the film brought tears to my eyes. Maybe you have come up with a great marketing strategy for young straight men: "See BBM and all the chicks will wanna have sex with you."
I'm sorry folks but one can't compare BBM to other Focus Films nor will 40 million in total sales get the movie very far in terms of winning Oscars (how is that for reality, Dave
). We know BBM is a virtual lock for a number of Oscar noms and is a very clear frontrunner to win in several categories including the two biggest: Best Pic and Best Director.
Folks, it has been 10 years since the Best Pic winner made less than 50 million (actually it was right at that amount). If BBM cannot parlay all of its awards and GG and Oscar noms to something higher than that, then the industry will label this great movie a dissapointment and say that America is not ready for a film with such subject matter. Obviously, at 40 million domestically, the film will be a major financial success for Focus, but if it wins major Oscars and makes only 40 the folks at Focus/Universal/NBC-GE will all be second guessing each other as to what went wrong with their marketing and distribution.
If you want to realistically compare it to something (here I go again) compare it to last year's Oscar winner which was a dark, brooding film with the subject of assisted suicide at its heart. There is no way Million Dollar Baby would have made what it did without the Oscar wins (even with Clint at the helm). MDB even came late to the awards races and did not win a Best Pic GG and still broke 100 million. IF BBM wins Best Pic, expect 80-100. If not, expect 50 or so. But no matter how anyone wants to spin it, 40 million will not be a good haul for a GG and Oscar favorite (and horrible if it wins Best Pic from both---which most expect it to do).
Of course, there is always a surprise somewhere, so maybe BBM will win a slew of Oscars, still top out at 40 million, and be hailed a success. But if you ask any industry expert if 40 million is a good take for an Oscar winner, he will probably ask you: "Do you mean before or after the Oscar telecast?" We have all been giddy over all the critical acclaim and the awards, but to be honest, it can all backfire. BBM almost has to win Best Pic/ Best Director at the Globes and Oscars; it almost has to lead the noms in the Oscar field; it almost has to do 50-75 million in domestic sales. Anything less will mean that the PERCEPTION will be that the movie (due to its subject matter) did not live up to the potential and expectations for such a critically acclaimed movie. However, IMO, speaking realistically, I don't really see any reasons why BBM will not meet all of those benchmarks.
A final caveat: it could be, especially if Focus masterfully spins the expectations game over the next weeks, that any success for an arty movie with "gay cowboys eating pudding" could be hailed as a win. However, the glowing (almost rapturous) media spin and slew of major awards for BBM is leaving that possibility looking less and less likely.